National bureau of economic research business cycle dating committee updating an old bicycle


But it noted that many other data points confirm the diagnosis.

"The committee determined that the decline in economic activity in 2008 met the standard for a recession," the group said in its statement.

Sometimes growth will be negative then turn positive in the next quarter.

Other times the Bureau of Economic Analysis might revise the GDP estimate in its next report.

It has been a quarter of a century since India commenced the journey of opening its economy to the world.

But the idea of a business cycle dating committee (BCDC) for India has not received sufficient attention.

Periods of recession are identified by a bar with a maximum value of “.01” and periods in which the economy was not in recession are denoted with a “0” value.

Values are based on a translation of business cycle begin and end dates as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research’s Business Cycle Dating Committee.

The NBER is a private, nonprofit group based in Cambridge, Mass.Timely identification of economic contraction and its severity allows policymakers to intervene, and thereby reduce its amplitude and duration.In addition, firms can re-evaluate projections of sales and profits, and the consumers their purchasing and investment plans, based on information on transitions to new business cycle phases.It analyses and compares the behaviour of key macroeconomic variables such as consumption, investment, unemployment, money supply, inflation, stock prices, etc., which may have different dynamics before, during and after the recession.It identifies turning points which act as a reference point for the construction of coincident, leading and lagging indicators of the economy.The nation's economy peaked, and the recession began, in December 2007, the National Bureau of Economic Research announced today.

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